Quantum Industry Hype

OK, so we are being constantly told that the next BIG thing is Quantum Computing. But the question we should be asking ourselves, is if this is Real or simply Hype. With the passing of time I am increasingly realising that what we are probably witnessing is nothing more than the early days of another BUBBLE! But this one appears to be more about being based on intellectual fake marketing than anything else. If this scenario continues to play itself out, the entire fiasco will come crashing down like a house of cards.  That won't be good for anyone, not just for the Technology Industry, but for the Quantum Physicists too.

IBM, Google, Microsoft & D-Wave etc. are all seriously contending to develop Quantum Computers. But the reality is that currently not a single real commercial product can actually perform in the real world! In fact the error rate of all the current trials that have been disclosed thus far, are too high to even make for any consideration whatsoever. Basically, they are unusable for any commercial practical application.

Maybe we should state some realities. Quantum Computers won't replace our normal silicone based computer technology. Simply put, they are not designed for that purpose anyway. They cant handle normal structured data nor can they process it (transactional) in a normal way. It will be extremely slow in handling structured data sets that most of our current computing requirements are based on. That means for even simple things like Internet Browsing, eMail, Word Processing and Spreadsheets etc. it serves no advantage whatsoever.  It's presumed strengths are that of analytical problem solving (i.e. planning routes or scheduling events such as airline and transport movements).

So what is feeding all the Hype? It's a number of factors: The Venture Capitalists want to make out as if they are exposed to an exciting new trend that makes their portfolios look impressive. The USA and China are each petrified that the other may open a panoramas box of wonders beyond the realm of the possible, and the PR folk are raising lots of hot air, simply to get their hands on investors money. None of this is good for science, academia nor even viable for the industry going forward as its not really based on rational thinking nor reasonable expectations. 

Many of the claims that have been shouted from the hilltops are simply untested, unfounded nor even proven. Quantum Computing in 2021 cannot make any promises about delivering real world solutions such as "Climate Change" etc. as they are not even able to provide a single working prototype algorithm that can even justify such claims. Truth is that we probably will not get to see a real working prototype that can handle any type of serious application for decades to come! Certainly not one that the current generation of traditional silicone based computers can handle.

The only thing that is going to become obvious, is that Billions of Dollars of Investors money is going to be poured down the drain. It's not a matter of IF.... but rather WHEN! Lets not even go down the path of discussing any possible fraud here either! Quantum Computing will in all likelihood remain a dream for many.... but real commercially viable systems may well never happen during our lifetime either. It's time to get REAL!

 Edit: If you are getting a sense of Déjà vu .... well you are. We've indeed been through this kind of thing before: Optical Computing

Operating System Wars

I must start off by disclosing that I started my career (coming from an Electrical Engineering background), focusing on Hardware and Networking, but from the beginning was also fully certified on SCO Xenix and Unix too.

Also, I have never so much as owned nor used any Apple products. Bluntly put, I have found them overpriced and too proprietary for my liking, thus will limit them in my comments below:

From a personal point of view, my home Operating System of choice started with Microsoft DOS and I have migrated (excluding Vista & Windows 8 for obvious reasons) to the current Windows 10. My reasons have never had anything to do with any loyalty to Microsoft at all (is still the case today). The simple fact is that the vast majority of the applications I currently use or need, continue to be Microsoft centric or not even available on other platforms at all. It really is that simple.

The question I do often ask myself though, is if I find Microsoft Windows easy and painless to use....and sadly the answer after all this time is still a big NO!

For someone who has worked daily in this environment for many many decades, the reality is that Microsoft has made almost no headway at all in being able to provide seamless and self maintaining operating systems. What do I mean by that...... some examples:

1. The Registry system etc. is outdated and far too prone to errors or corruption. There is a reason people have to use manual interventions and use “ccleaner" and "Disk Cleanup" to do ongoing maintenance that the operating system cannot do properly.

2. The Patch and Update management system is nothing other than pathetic. Users have very little control over the process and Microsoft continues to push out far too many error prone patches resulting even in data loss in some cases.

3. Constant requirement for Disk De-fragmentation for those without Solid State Drive technology.

4. Requirement for complex multi layered add-on Security/Anti-Virus/Malware/Firewall products.

5. Driver support: The Plug & Play “promise” has never been realised.

6. Privacy Configurations are obtuse and not very forthcoming. i.e. Microsoft is collecting far too much data on their customers.

7. No Built-In robust Backup and Restore function that can provide a total “removable” solution.

I could go on and on... but the above are some of the more important ones.

But here comes the problem.... what are the options:

For some people, the solution has been to migrate to Apple. Luckily for those who are into Graphic Art, Photography and Multi Media etc., it will have been an easy move for them. In recent years there has been a large migration from MS Windows to Apple macOS within those market sectors. But as I stated at the very beginning, it has never really been a viable option for me.

Which brings us to the only other real alternative, LINUX!

OK, so I must admit even though I almost exclusively use Windows 10 for my day to day productivity, I also use a Linux based system too. So why have I not migrated across to this platform? The truth is that I would love to....... if I only could!

1. Windows has a single owner, Microsoft. Linux has no ownership, no leadership, no conformity. In fact there are more available Linux distributions that I care to count.

2. As a result of the above the Linux market is confusing, fragmented and difficult to navigate.

3. The Linux community also have not exactly been making it easy for the uninitiated to migrate. For support you have to rely on the “Geeks and Nerds” of the industry. Company support is still very limited at this stage.

4. Very few of the Linux distributions are user friendly or easy for the average user to install.

5. Whilst there are many tens of thousands of Linux apps available, many popular ones are simply not available.

6. Many companies (i.e. Canon etc.) don’t bother providing Linux hardware drivers.

The truth is that if Linux was under the ownership of a single entity, they could probably have overtaken MS Windows by now (Most people don’t realise that the core of the Android operating system is Linux - Google was able to do this by taking full ownership of this smartphone OS system).

The good news is that with every passing year Linux is making progress and eating into the desktop market. The Linux Server space is very different, and not part of this discussion, other than to say that already almost all of the entire planets collection of Super Computers run on Linux. Many mainframe computers too – This because the worlds no.1 supplier of commercial Server Linux products come from IBM’s Red Hat division. In the Desktop space the range of options is unlimited, free and Open-Source. This (as stated above) has resulted in fragmentation and confusion though.

I am not an Linux specialist, and like to think I have no real allegiance to any distribution other than to declare that I currently use Linux Mint 20.x (MATE edition). The only reason I use Mint is because it makes migration for any current Windows user fairly easy (....compared to most of the others). I simply did not want to get bogged down with too much technical gumph! There is also a Cinnamon edition of Mint that is even more Windows like, but is in my opinion not yet as stable/robust as the Mate edition (The Mate edition also runs better on older hardware). At the end of the day its all down to a personal preference. i.e. The Cinnamon edition looks more sleek & modern. 

Whilst you will never have to worry about using Disk Defrag, CCleaner, Disk Cleanup or even figuring out what is going on with Service Patches again (In Linux you have full control over updates), there is certainly going to be a learning curve involved. You will need to make the effort to browse the many forums and blogs out there which contain unlimited advise and detail.

Do I think there is a future for the Linux desktop? My answer is that currently the global Linux Desktop market is still under 3%, but with every passing year it is growing and increasingly becoming popular among the new generation of young and upcoming engineers and programmers. So yes, whilst it is going to take time, this Free and Open-Source Operating System will grow and become mainstream, not in the short term, but certainly in the medium to long term as the developers become more and more business focused as well as putting more effort into the “End User” and less from being seen as a community of “Geeks and Nerds”!

Update (30 August 2021): Microsoft recently announced that only 8th Generation and newer Intel processors will be able to upgrade to Windows 11. This seems to be another classic Microsoft blunder in the making, one that is certain to upset existing Windows users (with hardware only a few years old). For some this will provide another key incentive to consider migrating to Linux! Though without doubt there are bound to be many hacks and backdoor methods to install Windows 11 onto older hardware whether Microsoft likes it or not!

 

Update:  A good article from April 2022

Why the Linux desktop is the best desktop!