OK, so we are being constantly told that the next BIG thing is Quantum Computing. But the question we should be asking ourselves, is if this is Real or simply Hype. With the passing of time I am increasingly realising that what we are probably witnessing is nothing more than the early days of another BUBBLE! But this one appears to be more about being based on intellectual fake marketing than anything else. If this scenario continues to play itself out, the entire fiasco will come crashing down like a house of cards. That won't be good for anyone, not just for the Technology Industry, but for the Quantum Physicists too.
IBM, Google, Microsoft & D-Wave etc. are all seriously contending to develop Quantum Computers. But the reality is that currently not a single real commercial product can actually perform in the real world! In fact the error rate of all the current trials that have been disclosed thus far, are too high to even make for any consideration whatsoever. Basically, they are unusable for any commercial practical application.
Maybe we should state some realities. Quantum Computers won't replace our normal silicone based computer technology. Simply put, they are not designed for that purpose anyway. They cant handle normal structured data nor can they process it (transactional) in a normal way. It will be extremely slow in handling structured data sets that most of our current computing requirements are based on. That means for even simple things like Internet Browsing, eMail, Word Processing and Spreadsheets etc. it serves no advantage whatsoever. It's presumed strengths are that of analytical problem solving (i.e. planning routes or scheduling events such as airline and transport movements).
So what is feeding all the Hype? It's a number of factors: The Venture Capitalists want to make out as if they are exposed to an exciting new trend that makes their portfolios look impressive. The USA and China are each petrified that the other may open a panoramas box of wonders beyond the realm of the possible, and the PR folk are raising lots of hot air, simply to get their hands on investors money. None of this is good for science, academia nor even viable for the industry going forward as its not really based on rational thinking nor reasonable expectations.
Many of the claims that have been shouted from the hilltops are simply untested, unfounded nor even proven. Quantum Computing in 2021 cannot make any promises about delivering real world solutions such as "Climate Change" etc. as they are not even able to provide a single working prototype algorithm that can even justify such claims. Truth is that we probably will not get to see a real working prototype that can handle any type of serious application for decades to come! Certainly not one that the current generation of traditional silicone based computers can handle.
The only thing that is going to become obvious, is that Billions of Dollars of Investors money is going to be poured down the drain. It's not a matter of IF.... but rather WHEN! Lets not even go down the path of discussing any possible fraud here either! Quantum Computing will in all likelihood remain a dream for many.... but real commercially viable systems may well never happen during our lifetime either. It's time to get REAL!
Edit: If you are getting a sense of Déjà vu .... well you are. We've indeed been through this kind of thing before: Optical Computing
