I don’t count myself as a Linux expert by any means, but I do have multiple Linux machines and worked on Unix systems (Linux is itself a derivative of Unix) before the “PC” industry took off. In the early PC era I was a certified SCO Unix/Xenix support engineer so have had a fair amount of exposure to these systems during my career.
With that background, I must ask the question, will 2026 finally be the “Year of Linux”? I believe it to be truly one of the most profound developments in the IT Industry in recent decades. It has transformed so many industries as well as opening up what we all know today as Open Source. I don’t think there is a single Super Computer on the planet that does not run on Linux, and even most new generation IBM Mainframe Computers are running it too (In 2025, 96 of the top 100 IBM Z enterprise customers were running Linux on their mainframes).
But here, I am only going to focus on the Desktop Platform:
To begin with, we need to recognise that there is problem…. A LARGE one that is preventing Linux from making any major inroads in the short to medium term. This problem is complex so one needs to segment it and look at some of these real issues.
There are over 600 Linux distributions available today. For even the most tech savvy of us, deciding which distro (variant) to use is not only complex… it’s riddled with hype, confusion and sometimes childish “fanboy” behaviour from their followers. For the average user, its simply too much effort having to jump through all the hoops to get there.
If you want a Windows PC, it’s simple as almost all come pre-installed and that is it! With Linux the reality is different in that besides a VERY few pre-loaded exceptions, you are going to need to do a lot of homework in deciding what Linux distro to use, and then install it yourself with almost no official or commercial support available, other than the somtimes limited online documentation and advice.
This 600+ distro situation is rather insane because the reality is that almost all Linux distributions are built on only about 3 or so base versions. The vast majority are built upon Debian. Debian has been around for a very long time and highly rated for being very stable and mature, thus its popularity. But it gets even more ridiculous, because many of the current Distros are built upon Ubuntu, which itself is built upon Debian. In fact the most popular, and dare I say it, largest installed base is Linux Mint which is built on Ubuntu which is built on Debian.
To understand why this is the case, one needs to compare Windows to Linux. Windows is a fully integrated OS. The entire operating system is a web of complex interconnected parts that cannot be separated. Microsoft built it like this from the ground up.
Linux is very different, at the core of the OS is a Kernel that is surrounded by a huge number of unique individual programs that handles everything we see and interface with. It is for this reason that there are so many distros, as each one of them tries to present itself as unique and with a different emphasis/focus when working with the kernel. Each one of them uses a slightly different User Interface too and most even give you the options of a number of User Interfaces to chose from…. So even more decisions need to be made by the user. Finding this confusing… well it gets worse!
Some distros are aimed at Advanced users, others are for Gamers, Programmers, Hackers, Education, etc. etc. For the majority, you will need at least some decent knowledge to install it as most are not exactly user friendly to say the least. Some actually go out of their way to make it difficult because they think it gives their users bragging rights.
Sadly there are indeed a rather odd bunch of Linux fanatics out there on the Internet too. They are not helpful and in fact can be quite obnoxious at times, to put it mildly… they don’t have nor believe in “People Skills” so live in a Linux bubble instead! When new users post for help or assistance on the user forums, they can land up being ridiculed for asking a perfectly normal question. Fortunately these clowns are in the minority, but they will always try to convince you to do stupid or unreasonable things like using an unnecessary command line: i.e. Opening the Terminal program and then typing “shutdown -h now”. Meanwhile all you need to do is find and hit the Shutdown button with a mouse click.
Whilst some are happy to open the terminal program and hit about 15 keys just to shutdown the PC, it’s a rather silly & unnecessary proceedure in an era of the Graphical User Interface. It’s as if they will try to make life as complex as possible thinking that it makes them look smart. Instead of encouraging people to migrate to Linux, they do the exact opposite. In reality there will be times when one needs to use terminal commands, but it is not too often. My advice would be to avoid most of these forums if possible and rather read articles or use AI Tools that have come a long way in providing rather good technical advise. In the era of AI, I think these forums will eventually fade away as they become more and more irrelevant. That hopefully will remove the odd-ball geeks who discourage new Linux users.
I am mostly going to stick to the Debian based distros here purely because I am of the opinion that being so popular, stable and with such a long track record, it is the best and logical way to go for the average user. The other popular other ones though, are Fedora (Solid product, supported by, and part of Red Hat) & Arch (Popular with the fanboy’s and others who need to spend a LOT of their time just trying to keep it running smoothly!) Also, it is my view that one should ignore all the smaller distros out there for one simple reason, small number of users = small amount of documentation and available experience. It makes no sense to use a distro that very few people are using and also a risk of it dying a slow death too. Run into a problem with a device driver that does not work, and you probably are going to be in trouble.
My advice, only stick to the top Debian or Ubuntu base distros. They can easily be found here: Debian Distros + Ubuntu Distros. Now from a list of 600+ one can easily isolate it down to only about a dozen distros (if you insist on using an Arch based distro, would only recommend Manjaro as it has a more conservative approach to updates and, like Mint, is certainly "refined" and "user friendly").
Next comes the other factors to consider. Ease of use and simplicity to install: Some distros are designed to look like Windows, others more like Apple, but at the end of the day those are not the real issues in my view. It boils down to intuitiveness and a user friendly interface. I established that four of the popular distros, Mint, MX, Manjaro & Peppermint OS are all very easy to use. Personally, I have stuck to Mint on my main PC simply because it is one of the most refined and stable distro I have tried. It has never crashed nor caused me any pain. Linux Mint will easily install onto a dual boot Windows machine automatically (I use a dual boot Win 11 PC) as the install process is intuitive and integrated very well. They all had a decent install process too, specially if you simply stuck to the defaults.
But finding the right distro is still half of the battle because one still needs to choose a User Interface (GUI). In all, there are about eight of them that are popular: I won’t comment more on all of them other than to provide this list: Interface.
Some like MX Linux give you three options of Xfce, KDE or Fluxbox. Peppermint OS comes with Xfce and Linux Mint offers Cinnamon, Xfce or MATE. These are important options you will need to make. But bear in mind that the core of the system including the kernel are all exactly the same. It’s how it is presented that is the issue here. It’s pointless installing a very demanding and graphically intense GUI on an old computer because it will simply struggle to cope. The Cinnamon interface will eat a lot of memory and can be very demanding, slowing down even a reasonably fast computer when icons are animated etc. Even though it is a modern looking interface, designed to be similar to Windows 11, many users get frustrated and simply land up having to de-activate the animations etc. anyway.
If your Linux workspace still looks like this...
I have tested and experimented extensively with about 4 interfaces, but have long standardised all of my Linux machines on the Xfce interface (even on my fastest Intel i7 based hardware). This as I wanted the same look and feel across all of them and my main motivation was for speed and efficiency. It’s like comparing a big Ford Pickup Truck filled with every possible known gadget and option installed, this instead of a standard Toyota sedan with only the real stuff you will ever use. The Pickup Truck will constantly need to be be patched and updated with all these gadgets… meanwhile the Toyota without all this excess baggage, simply goes smoothly without any real issues. The sedan will always go faster than the overloaded pickup. MX and Peppermint in fact come with Xfce as their default Interface, built for efficiency and able to run smoothly even on older hardware. The hard reality is that you will need to decide if you want a computer with multiple bells and whistles for the sake of good looks, or a real efficient (and faster) PC.
It is important to note that Supercomputers do not even run a GUI at all, exactly for this same reason. Graphical Interfaces use a lot of memory and processing power that is better utilised elsewhere, so almost everything is terminal based on all of the worlds most powerful Linux machines. Many Linux fans would be devastated if they ever saw a real Linux Supercomputer terminal as it really looks very dull and boring....yet can handle millions of transactions simultaneously!
Yet many Linux Gamers and Hobbyists will take extraordinary measures to have the most fancy looking machine possible. Every icon and wallpaper is carefully chosen with absolute glee. They will then change their entire distro as soon as they hear that “x” or “y” distro is in vogue, looks better or has more features. It becomes a zero sum game. Others simply want to have a very efficient computing experience. You need to decide what your real needs and wishes are and stay with it. Constantly migrating from one distro to another is great for the hobbyist or undecided student, but totally impractical for the vast majority of us.
When I need to test software on another distro, I use my Test PC and simply Dual Boot into Manjaro (Arch based), instead of Mint (Ubuntu based). Occasionally I will test with a “slide-in” drive using a Debian based distro. As with all the distros I have tested and used, they are Xfce based thus flexible & very efficient and easy to use.
With age, comes experience, so it is quite rare to find many Linux users over the age of 40 who are still messing around. By then they have realised how many days they have wasted and lost just trying to keep their system running smoothly or figuring out why a usb device has suddenly stopped working. It’s why most of the real serious professional users tend to stick to a stable distro and rather focus on getting real work done! It’s clearly the reason why Linux Mint is so popular and dominates the current user base. I would be very loath to migrate off Mint on my main machine even though I really also like Manjaro and Pepperment (MX requires a re-install every 2 - 3 years when there is a major version release, so I won't really consider it for my main driver). Basically makes no sense to keep switching or re-installing distros.
Once your distro and interface have been selected, and finally installed, you certainly will be able to setup your Desktop exactly as you want. Unlike Windows, the Linux user is given far more freedom to decide how the interface will look. I always change my Xfce layout to include functionality I need, and delete others I never use. i.e. I always like a Power and Restart button on my panel and prefer more appealing Icon colours too. I always shrink the size of the desktop and panel icons as well as display the percentage battery charge + time/date layout etc. too. Want to display the internal temperature of your CPU in the panel? No problem, with Linux that is quite easy to do! One of the 1st things new Linux users realise is how restrictive Windows/Apple systems really are. They are not designed for modifications, nor do they encourage their users to do so. Linux is the exact opposite. You get to determine the look and feel of your desktop. It’s one of the great advantages of an open system as not only does Linux encourage it, but provides all the necessary tools to do so.
Most of the decent distros out there will all come pre-installed with standard software like the Firefox Browser (highly recommended) as well as LibreOffice, Thunderbird (email), VLC (Media Player) as well as utilities like TimeShift (to do a restore of your entire system), Disk Management & Firewall etc. too. Whatever other software you wish to install, simply do it from the “Package Manager”. Linux Mint has over 30000 there, Debian has 50000, all of it free to install directly without intervention and without having to go to a browser to find, download and install manually. If you don’t need it any more, the Package Manager will remove it easily and simply too.
If you absolutely must use Windows software (I have avoided this, and easily been able to migrate over to Linux alternatives), install the WINE application (free Windows Emulator) and many thousands of Windows apps will run in that environment too.
Recommending which Linux Distro to use, is mission impossible. It’s like asking which Chinese brand of car to buy… this as currently there are almost 100 of them, many sharing the same parts & powertrain. Some people like a sedan, some a hatch back or a station wagon etc. It’s all down to personal taste or specific requirements. One can’t simply say that vehicle A is better than B. Same applies to Linux!My tips:
- Use an Ubuntu/Debian based distro if you want stability.
- On older hardware, avoid a “Rolling” distro if you want to avoid any sudden breakages!
- Avoid a distro that requires a fresh new install for every major new release.
- Avoid a distro with a small or niche user base as support will be limited.
- Beware of distros that come with a Free and a Paid version - It’s a commercial trap.
- Don’t be too obsessed with the “Interface” style, they all basically sit upon the same kernel.
- Running a resource heavy interface makes no sense unless you have decent hardware.
- A decent Package Manager is a very important consideration in chosing a Distro..
- Distro hopping can be fun…. But it will certainly consume you if you don’t value your time.
- Visit the distrowatch.org website (Page Hit Ranking) – Many will certainly disappear over time.
In summary, even though I use Linux daily and believe that it has incredible potential, will probably, remain a niche (4-6% penetration) OS option for the vast majority of computer users in the short to medium term. This for obvious reasons:
The excessive number of Distros is harmful and causes unnecessary confusion.
None are official, so it “analysis paralysis”. Or death by a thousand cuts as is often said.
Unlike Windows, is not pre-installed and too cumbersome for the average user to install and fine-tune.
Poor support and conflicting documentation, thus the reliance on unpredictable User Forums/AI.
Limited Driver support and/or unstable Kernel conflicts/updates.
Software – Users will need to change some apps - And using Wine can be painful to setup!
Inconsistent and unpredictable behaviour across the distros. Needs to be more mature.
All of the above are real issues, despite Linux being a vastly more efficient, secure & customisable OS. The reality is that Linux works well...but not always without effort. If Microsoft decides that home users must move to a “rental” model as they have done with many of their other products, that will be the game changer though. It would be a major boost for Linux. Microsoft have not exactly excelled when it comes to reliability and stability of their products either. In the meanwhile unless you are lucky enough to have a family member, friend or a neighbour who is willing to come install Linux and help you migrate, the status quo is not going to change much anytime soon.
